Generic correlative and process-based models for climate suitability analysis for plant pests and diseases

The primary goal of this grant is to advance the development and application of generic correlative and process-based models for analyzing climate suitability for plant pests and diseases. The focus is on mechanistic models that estimate how environmental factors such as temperature and moisture influence the growth, development, and persistence of pests and pathogens. Rather than quantifying population abundance, these models assess the favorability of environmental conditions for the establishment and activity of specific species. The grant also supports the creation and testing of solutions for running Species Distribution Models (SDMs) that are informed by process-based models or indices derived from the physiological characteristics of the organisms.

Eligibility for this grant is centered on entities capable of developing and implementing simplified mechanistic models and SDMs. Applicants should have expertise in modeling environmental suitability for plant pests and diseases, with a strong understanding of how abiotic factors affect species-specific processes such as development rates, survival during adverse conditions, and phenological development.

The impact of this grant is expected to be significant in improving the prediction and management of plant pest and disease risks under varying climatic conditions. By integrating physiological and environmental data into modeling approaches, the outcomes will enhance the ability to forecast potential pest and pathogen presence, supporting better-informed decision-making in plant health management and biosecurity.